Why the Chinese balloon crisis could be a defining moment in the new Cold War

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Why the Chinese balloon crisis could be a defining moment in the new Cold War

Postby Edge Guerrero » Tue Feb 07, 2023 1:19 am

Analysis by Stephen Collinson, CNN
Updated 4:51 AM EST, Mon February 6, 2023


CNN

The Chinese balloon saga threatens to be a watershed moment in the world’s dangerous new superpower rivalry: For the first time, Americans experienced a tangible symbol of the national security challenge from Beijing.

The craft, described by US intelligence as a surveillance balloon, presented a comparatively low-tech, modest security threat compared to the multi-layered espionage, economic, cyber, military and geopolitical rivalry escalating every day.

But as it wafted through US skies before being shot down Saturday off of the Carolinas, the balloon created a sudden moment when the idea of a threat by China to the US homeland was neither distant, theoretical, unseen, or years in the future. And it underscored how in today’s polarized America, Washington’s first reaction in the face of a threat is to point fingers rather than unify.

It was not the first time that Chinese balloons have crossed into US airspace during this administration or the last one – and military officials told CNN this one was not seen as a particularly grave intelligence or national security threat. But its mocking days-long sashay from Montana to the eastern seaboard sparked a media frenzy and a Washington uproar.


In what was simultaneously a moment of geopolitical high stakes and high farce, the White House struggled to explain why it hadn’t immediately burst the balloon as officials in South Carolina warned people not to take pot shots at the high-flying Chinese intruder with their rifles.

This all left President Joe Biden in a deeply vulnerable position as his Republican critics pounced. The balloon could not simply be ignored – especially as Secretary of State Antony Blinken was about to head on a trip to Beijing that was quickly canceled as the political storm erupted.

“We should not have let the People’s Republic of China make a mockery of our airspace,” Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell said in a statement Sunday.

While Beijing expressed unusual regret for the incursion of what it claimed was a weather monitoring airship, its critics see the incident as the latest example of a brazen willingness to flex its power outside its region, to trample established rules between nations and as more evidence of an aggressive attempt to expand its influence and intelligence operations around the globe, which have targeted businesses, universities and Chinese Americans as well as traditional targets.

“The US has made clear that this is an unacceptable intrusion into American sovereignty,” Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday. While China has scores of spy satellites trained on the US – just as Washington does on its rival – the visible audacity of the balloon flight has triggered fury in Washington. This, in turn, threatens to unleash political, military and diplomatic forces in both nations that, while manageable in the short-term, show how hard it will be to stop this growing rivalry from hitting a boiling point and causing war in one of the defining threats of the 21st century.

Until the balloon crossed into US airspace, there was a small window between Chinese President Xi Jinping’s securing of a norm-busting third term last year and the next US presidential election when cooler politics in Washington and Beijing could have facilitated an easing of diplomatic tensions. That opportunity may now have been squandered.


Immediate questions for Biden

The aftermath of the crisis poses tough questions for Biden and is an unwelcome distraction from a State of the Union address on Tuesday that is a reelection campaign launch in all but name.

Republicans quickly branded Biden as feckless, easily intimidated by China and slow to defend US territory. While such criticism is easy for critics with a megaphone but no responsibility, the political tumult will make a treacherous environment for future US policymaking designed to head off a clash with China.

The US military must explain why the balloon was not shot down before traversing the continental US, and the incident threatens to open up tensions between the Pentagon and an under-fire White House over the handling of the incident, as well as debate over what to do next time.

The balloon’s ignominious end – burst by a missile fired by a US jet – also plays into volatile Chinese politics. It represents fresh embarrassment for Xi, whose cementing of a third term has been overshadowed by a badly botched effort to combat the Covid-19 pandemic, unprecedented anti-lockdown protests and now a major crisis with the United States. It begs the question of whether the flight was a deliberate act to provoke the US or was a mistake. Or were hawkish Chinese armed forces seeking to embarrass the top leadership, or to derail attempts to ease the temperature with the US ahead of Blinken’s visit?

The episode is a reminder that while the ruling Chinese Communist Party is ruthless and repressive, high-stakes power politics is as treacherous in Beijing as Washington. Like in the US, the fraught politics of US-China relations can lead to decisions that cause escalation.

American backlash

Biden’s decision not to shoot down the balloon until it was over the Atlantic coast offered an easy opening to Republicans keen to label him as weak before his expected reelection bid.

“As usual when it comes to national defense and foreign policy, the Biden administration reacted at first too indecisively and then too late,” McConnell said.

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio cast the incident as a blatant challenge to American power, and suggested Biden’s temperate action raised questions over whether he would stand up to worse Chinese threats, for instance over democratic Taiwan.

“The message embedded in this to the world is, we can fly a balloon over airspace of the United States of America, and you won’t be able to do anything about it to stop us,” Rubio, the vice chair of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, said on CNN’s “State of the Union.”

Other Republicans, including ex-president Donald Trump, pounced when the balloon was not immediately shot down, despite warnings that its vast size could cause damage or deaths on the ground. Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton said, for instance, on Fox that “what began as a spy balloon has become a trial balloon testing President Biden’s strength and resolve, and unfortunately, the president failed that test.” Republicans failed to note that officials said several balloon flights over the US occurred during the Trump administration, although the transiting of those suspected Chinese spy balloons during the previous administration was only discovered after Biden took office, a senior administration official told CNN’s Natasha Bertrand on Sunday.

Republicans have long seen hawkishness as a political weapon. But many Democrats also see China as a rising threat, which is likely to trigger hardline policies that will deepen America’s estrangement with its rival.

While the Biden administration has faced criticism for not publicizing the balloon earlier in the week, the idea that the president is in China’s pocket is belied by a policy toward the communist giant that has cranked up a confrontational stance adopted by Trump. (The ex-president had initially cozied up to Xi and agreed to a failed trade deal before turning on Beijing when a pandemic that originated in China threatened his reelection bid).

Biden has deepened US ties with Asian allies designed to counter China – securing expanded access to bases in the Philippines, for instance, and reaching agreement with Japan on the offensive capacity of US Marines there in recent weeks. He has also sought to bolster Western access and manufacturing of semi-conductors in a blow to China. If any foreign autocrats see Biden as a soft touch, all they have to do is look at the multi-billion dollar effective proxy war he’s fighting against Russia in Ukraine in the biggest mobilization of the Western alliance since the Soviet Union fell.

Still, the political fallout will still likely impede Biden, even if it’s hard to imagine voters making his handling of China – absent a future major crisis – the decisive factor in 2024. The balloon flap is the latest unexpected event, including the controversy over classified vice presidential documents found in his Delaware home and a former office, to frustrate Biden’s attempt to focus on strong job growth and the extremism of the new House Republican majority ahead of his expected run for a second term.

The House will seek to rain on his parade further this week with a possible resolution condemning his handling of the surveillance balloon, which could pass before the State of the Union address, CNN’s Melanie Zanona reported.

Full read https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/06/politics/us-china-new-cold-war-spy-balloon/index.html
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Masato
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Postby Masato » Tue Feb 07, 2023 2:44 pm

I beg of you as a friend to please stop trusting/believing/reading CNN

dass
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Postby dass » Tue Feb 07, 2023 5:23 pm

The Chinese are preparing for war???!!!


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